Scenario War Room

Cross-functional what-if modeling for cascading multi-variable scenarios.

Business & Ops / Executive Advisorybusiness-opsexecutive-advisory
by AgentVoltv1.0.0Published 1y ago1 install
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Before & after

Same prompt, same agent — the only difference is the skill.

PromptWhat happens to our business if churn spikes AND our biggest client leaves?
Beforegeneric AI agent
That's a compound scenario - multiple stressors at once. Single stress tests are easier to analyze (what if churn goes up 50%?), but real crises usually involve multiple cascading failures. You'd need to model: revenue impact from both events, how the team reacts, whether you hit payroll, burn rate acceleration, if you need to cut costs. Different parts of your business respond differently - product team velocity might drop if you shift resources to retention, sales team may have less budget. This gets complex fast because each variable influences the others. Do you have current numbers I can work with? Churn rate, client revenue size, monthly burn, that kind of thing?
Afterwith Scenario War Room
SCENARIO: CHURN SPIKE + CLIENT LOSS (30-day cascade)

BASE CASE (no crisis)
Monthly recurring revenue: 80k
Churn rate: 3% monthly (normal)
Top client revenue: 12k (15% of total)
Monthly burn: 60k
Runway: 14 months

COMPOUND CRISIS SCENARIO

DAY 1-3: CLIENT LOSS (12k revenue gone immediately)
MRR impact: 80k → 68k
Psychological impact: Team panic, retention attention shifts
Operational cost: 20 hours internal investigation + churn interviews

DAY 4-7: CHURN SPIKE BEGINS (fear spreads to other accounts)
Churn accelerates from 3% to 8% (industry contagion signal)
Monthly revenue impact: 68k × 8% = 5.4k loss on remaining base
Compounded MRR: 68k - 5.4k = 62.6k (21.75% total loss month 1)

WEEK 2: CUSTOMER SUPPORT OVERLOAD
Support costs spike 40% (retention calls, account reviews)
Product team pulls 2 engineers to retention work (6 person-weeks lost velocity)
Sales team stalls (prospecting stops, focus on saves)

WEEK 3-4: FINANCIAL IMPACT CRYSTAL CLEAR
Projected month-end MRR: 59k (26% loss from baseline)
Monthly loss: 21k/month
New burn rate: 60k operating cost - 59k revenue = breakeven (vs. comfortable 20k surplus)
Runway remaining: 11 months (down from 14)

CASCADE EFFECTS (interdependencies)
Retention focus → Product velocity halts → Competitive feature gap widens → More churn
Churn momentum → Team morale drops → Recruiting freeze → More departures
Cash pressure → Discretionary budget cut → Marketing stops → Lead gen dies → Future sales decline

Escalation triggers (when it gets worse)
→ If churn hits 10%: Hit negative cash flow month 2, need emergency cost cuts
→ If two more mid-size clients leave (3k+ each): Accelerate runway crisis to month 3
→ If key person leaves due to stress: Churn accelerates further (knowledge loss)

COUNTERMEASURES (priority order)
1. IMMEDIATE (day 1): Proactive customer calls (top 10 accounts, reassurance)
2. WEEK 1: Cost containment (hiring freeze, discretionary cuts = save 8k/month)
3. WEEK 2: Retention campaign (discount/feature unlock for at-risk accounts)
4. WEEK 3: Runway extension (bridge financing, customer prepayment)
5. PARALLEL: Win-back strategy (re-engage the lost client, 30% recovery realistic)

About this skill


name: scenario-war-room description: Use when Cross-functional what-if modeling for cascading multi-variable scenarios.

Scenario War Room

Cross-functional what-if modeling for cascading multi-variable scenarios. Unlike single-assumption stress testing, this models compound adversity across all business functions simultaneously. Use when facing complex risk scenarios, strategic decisions with major downside, or when the user asks 'what if X AND Y both happen?'

What you get

  • Public GitHub repo (alirezarezvani/claude-skills)
  • the scenario-war-room skill folder with SKILL.md. Part of a 337-skill / 30-agent / 70-command install.

Customize your output

  • Fork the repo and adapt the skill's instructions and references to your workflow.

Example output

Activates automatically when your request matches Scenario War Room; chains with the other skills, agents, and commands in the collection.

Best for

Creators, builders, and teams using Claude Code.

SKILL.md preview

SKILL.md
---
name: scenario-war-room
description: Use this skill when facing a complex risk scenario or a decision with major downside and the user asks what happens if multiple adverse events occur together, not just one assumption at a time.
version: 1.0.0
category: Business & Ops / Executive Advisory
author: AgentVolt
license: proprietary
tags:
  - business-ops
  - executive-advisory
---

# Scenario War Room

Models cascading, compound-adversity scenarios across every business function at once — cash, sales, product, people — instead of stress-testing one assumption in isolation.

## When to use

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