Program Schedule and Risk Quantifier
Turn a multi-workstream plan into a P50/P80 date, risks priced by EMV, sized contingency, WSJF sequencing, and one decision.
Before & after
Same prompt, same agent — the only difference is the skill.
That's a complex planning challenge. You'll want to think about capacity planning across your teams and also identify risks. Some things to consider: Make sure you understand how much work each team can handle. Think about dependencies between teams. Also consider what could go wrong and have contingency plans. You might want to track milestone dates. Have you thought about resource allocation yet? I'd be happy to help you develop a more detailed plan if you share specific details about your teams, timeline, and constraints.
TEAM CAPACITY MATRIX Team Current Velocity Headcount 18mo Budget Backend 22 points/sprint 5 18,000 hrs Frontend 18 points/sprint 4 14,400 hrs Ops 12 points/sprint 2 9,600 hrs RISK REGISTER (Top 5) 1. API rate limits on third-party service → Impact: High | Probability: 40% | Mitigation: Cache layer by Q3 2026 2. Hiring delays (2 open roles) → Impact: Medium | Probability: 60% | Mitigation: Defer Phase 2 by 4 weeks 3. Scope creep on mobile → Impact: High | Probability: 70% | Mitigation: Freeze feature list by August MILESTONES & GATES Q3 2026: Auth + Webhooks (backend); Mobile release candidate Q4 2026: Analytics dashboard (frontend + ops); Production hardening Q1 2027: Multi-tenant support; Performance optimization RESOURCE ALLOCATION Backend: 40% on core APIs, 30% on integrations, 30% on tech debt Frontend: 50% on dashboards, 30% on mobile, 20% on polish Velocity risk: If hiring slips 8 weeks, front-load Q3 or defer Q1 features.
About this skill
A plan built from 'most likely' estimates is usually less than a coin flip, and three green workstreams merging into UAT can still add up to a red launch. This skill turns your program plan into honest numbers and names the decision leadership needs to make.
What it does
- Builds P50 and P80 dates with Monte Carlo when code can run, or a stated PERT approximation when not
- Catches merge bias, near-critical paths, shared-specialist conflicts, and correlated risks
- Prices risks by expected monetary value and sizes schedule and cost contingency
- Tightens the risk register: cause-event-effect wording, owners, triggers, missing categories
- Sequences competing initiatives with properly normalized WSJF and flags fragile ranks
What you get
A program quant pack: decision needed, confidence dates, drivers, risk exposure table, contingency, WSJF sequencing, and assumptions with their effect if wrong.
Best for
Program and project managers, PMOs, and delivery leads on multi-team software or transformation programs.
SKILL.md preview
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name: senior-pm
description: Quantify a multi-workstream program's schedule and risk the way a senior program manager does - critical path and merge points, three-point estimates, a Monte Carlo or PERT confidence date (P50/P80), risk exposure by expected monetary value, contingency sizing, and WSJF sequencing of competing work - then name the one decision leadership must make. Use when the user says "what's our realistic go-live date?", "how confident are we in this date?", "quantify the risks on this program", "how much contingency do we need?", "which workstream do we cut or move people to?", "prioritize these initiatives with WSJF", or "the exec deck needs a real date".
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