Budget Variance Analysis and EBITDA Bridge
Get reconciled budget-vs-actual analysis, revenue and payroll driver breakdowns, an EBITDA bridge, and executive commentary.
Before & after
Same prompt, same agent — the only difference is the skill.
To understand your EBITDA miss, you'll want to analyze the variance between budget and actuals across your key line items. Start by comparing: - Revenue vs. budget - Cost of goods sold - Operating expenses (payroll, marketing, G&A) For each line, calculate the variance and identify which had the biggest impact. Revenue misses often come from lower volume or pricing, while expense overruns can come from unplanned hires or one-time costs. Once you know where the variance is concentrated, you can dig into the drivers. Do you have the budget-vs-actual numbers available?
EBITDA BRIDGE — Q3 Budget vs Actual Materiality filter: variances over $25K or 5% shown; rest rolled to Other. Budget EBITDA .......................... $1,840K ─────────────────────────────────────────────── Revenue — volume −$310K ← the story is here Revenue — price +$140K Revenue — mix − $60K COGS — volume-driven +$180K (flows with the volume miss) Payroll — headcount −$220K Payroll — timing + $90K Marketing − $70K Other (below threshold) − $30K ─────────────────────────────────────────────── Actual EBITDA .......................... $1,600K miss: $240K WHAT THE DECOMPOSITION SAYS THAT THE TOTAL HIDES The $240K miss is NOT a spending problem. It's a volume problem partly masked by good pricing. Revenue: you lost $310K on volume but clawed $140K back on price — you held or raised prices into a soft quarter. Net revenue driver is −$230K, and it's demand, not discounting. Payroll: −$220K headcount looks like an overrun, but +$90K of timing says planned hires landed early, not that you overspent on comp. Net −$130K, and it's a phasing issue that reverses. COGS +$180K is favorable and mechanical — you sold less, so you spent less to make it. Not a win, just the other side of the volume miss. THE ONE SENTENCE FOR THE BOARD "We missed by $240K driven almost entirely by lower volume ($230K net of a favorable pricing offset); the payroll variance is early hiring timing that normalizes in Q4, not a structural cost overrun." WHERE TO LOOK NEXT The volume miss. Price held, so this isn't a competitiveness problem — it's pipeline or seasonality. Pull the volume variance by product line and I'll tell you if it's concentrated or broad.
About this skill
“Revenue missed plan, payroll is over, and the explanations still don't add up.” This skill reconciles budget and actuals, separates measurable drivers from unsupported explanations, and builds an EBITDA bridge that ties to the reported result.
What it does
- Checks account mappings, reporting periods, currencies, and EBITDA definitions before calculating variances.
- Applies stated materiality thresholds while exposing large offsetting movements and unbudgeted activity.
- Decomposes revenue into price, volume, and mix using an explicit, additive calculation.
- Separates payroll exposure, hiring timing, rates, and one-time costs when supporting data exists.
- Builds a budget-to-actual EBITDA bridge without double counting revenue and margin effects.
- Writes concise leadership commentary with evidence, uncertainty, and specific forecast implications.
What you get
A reconciled variance table, an additive EBITDA bridge, and an executive explanation of the largest drivers. Missing data produces clearly labeled provisional findings and targeted follow-up requests rather than invented causes.
Best for
FP&A analysts, controllers, and finance leaders preparing monthly or quarterly close commentary, management reporting, or budget performance reviews.
SKILL.md preview
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name: budget-variance-analysis-and-ebitda-bridge
description: Reconcile budget and actuals, decompose revenue and payroll movements, and build an additive EBITDA bridge with evidence-backed executive commentary. Use when the user says "explain our budget miss", "build an EBITDA bridge", "write the monthly variance commentary", "why is payroll over budget", "split revenue into price volume and mix", "my variance explanations don't tie out", or "which variances should change the forecast".
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# Budget Variance Analysis and EBITDA Bridge
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