Financial Model Scenario & Sensitivity Analysis
Stress-test an existing financial model with linked scenarios, sensitivity tables, ranked drivers, and decision thresholds.
Before & after
Same prompt, same agent — the only difference is the skill.
Scenario and sensitivity analysis is a great way to stress-test your model. You'll want to define your best, base, and worst case scenarios based on key assumptions. Then you can build out sensitivity tables to see which variables have the biggest impact on your bottom line—things like revenue growth, customer acquisition cost, churn rate. That'll help you understand what to focus on. But building all that into a spreadsheet can get complicated. What are your biggest uncertainties?
SCENARIO & SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: 5-Year Financial Model SCENARIO MANAGER BASE CASE (probability 50%) • Revenue growth: 25% YoY • CAC payback period: 14 months • Gross margin: 78% • Operating expense ratio: 52% of revenue • Year 5 EBITDA: 12.3M BEST CASE (probability 25%) • Revenue growth: 40% YoY (viral adoption) • CAC payback: 9 months • Gross margin: 82% (scale efficiency) • OpEx ratio: 45% • Year 5 EBITDA: 22.8M WORST CASE (probability 25%) • Revenue growth: 8% YoY (market contraction) • CAC payback: 22 months • Gross margin: 71% (pricing pressure) • OpEx ratio: 60% • Year 5 EBITDA: 1.2M SENSITIVITY TABLES ONE-VARIABLE SENSITIVITY: Year 5 EBITDA by CAC Payback Period CAC payback 8m: 26.1M | 12m: 12.3M | 18m: -1.4M | 24m: -8.9M TWO-VARIABLE TORNADO CHART: Highest Impact Drivers 1. Revenue growth rate (8%-40% range impacts EBITDA by +/- 10.5M) 2. CAC payback period (8-24 month range impacts +/- 8.2M) 3. Gross margin (71%-82% range impacts +/- 4.1M) 4. OpEx ratio (45%-60% range impacts +/- 3.2M) 5. Churn rate (2%-8% annual impacts +/- 2.1M) KEY FINDINGS → Revenue growth is primary lever (fix acquisition strategy) → CAC payback has 2x sensitivity impact vs gross margin → Crossing breakeven happens in Year 4 (base case) SCENARIO PROBABILITY WEIGHTED FORECAST Expected Year 5 EBITDA: 10.8M (confidence interval: -1.4M to 22.8M)
About this skill
Your model has a base case, but how much would assumptions have to move before the decision changes? This skill adds coherent downside, base, and upside scenarios, isolates the drivers that matter, and finds the combinations that cross your cash, margin, valuation, or covenant threshold.
What it does
- Maps editable assumptions to model outputs without treating calculated results as independent inputs.
- Builds an auditable scenario manager with linked assumptions, units, timing, and rationale.
- Produces one-variable sensitivities and ranks drivers by their effect over explicitly stated ranges.
- Builds two-variable grids that reveal combinations where the decision changes.
- Checks baseline recovery, scenario switching, formula consistency, and misleading downside comparisons.
- Separates supported ranges from provisional assumptions and uncalculated results.
What you get
A scenario assumption matrix, selected output comparisons, sensitivity tables, a ranked driver summary, and the thresholds that change the decision. Depending on your inputs, the result includes calculated analysis, spreadsheet-ready formulas, or a precise implementation specification.
Best for
FP&A analysts, finance teams, and founders who already have a financial model and need to challenge its assumptions before committing capital or presenting a plan.
SKILL.md preview
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name: financial-model-scenario-sensitivity-analysis
description: >-
Stress-tests an existing financial model by separating editable drivers from calculated results, building linked scenarios, and calculating controlled one- and two-variable sensitivities with decision thresholds. Use when the user says "stress-test this model", "add best/base/worst cases", "build a sensitivity table", "which assumptions matter most?", "my downside case barely changes anything", "show price versus volume sensitivity", or "what would make this plan fail?".
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# Financial Model Scenario & Sensitivity Analysis
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