Market Sizing, Survey Design & Segment Selection
Get reconciled TAM/SAM/SOM estimates, defensible survey sample sizes, and evidence-based segment selection.
Before & after
Same prompt, same agent — the only difference is the skill.
That's an interesting market question! There definitely seems to be growing interest in AI tools, and project management is a real pain point for many people. Solo consultants probably do need better tools. The market could be significant, though it's hard to say exactly without more research. You'd want to think about how many solo consultants there are, whether they'd actually pay for something like this, and what alternatives exist. Competition could be a factor. You might want to survey some potential customers to see if they'd be interested. Without doing a full market study, I'd say there's probably something there, but it's worth validating with real data before investing heavily. What size opportunity were you thinking?
TAM/SAM/SOM ANALYSIS TOP-DOWN TAM • US solo consultants: 21M (Census Bureau 2023) • Assume 60% manage projects with tools: 12.6M addressable • Avg revenue per user: $120/year → TAM = $1.5B BOTTOM-UP TAM (validation) • Survey 200 solo consultants (existing communities): 45% rated current PM tools as "painful" • Of those, 38% said they'd trial an AI-native alternative • Adjusted TAM: 12.6M × 0.45 × 0.38 = 2.16M users at risk of switching • Conservative $80/year ARPU → $172M realistic TAM SAM (Serviceable Addressable Market) • Focus: US English-speaking consultants in tech/design/strategy • LinkedIn population: 340K (skills: project management + consultant profile) • SAM = 340K × 15% conversion (early adopters) = 51K addressable SOM (Year 1 revenue) • 1st-year goal: 2.5% SAM penetration (1,275 users) • 80% freemium-to-paid conversion at $120/year • SOM = 1,020 users × $120 = $122,400 KOTLER SEGMENTATION SCORE: Substantial (10M+ users), Measurable (51K addressable), Actionable (direct sales channel exists). Proceed with MVP.
About this skill
“Our market size is one number from a report” and “we'll survey 100 people” are weak foundations for a business decision. This skill builds auditable market estimates, calculates samples for the decisions you actually need to make, and checks whether attractive segments are reachable and actionable.
What it does
- Calculates TAM from both external market totals and buyer counts multiplied by realistic annual spending.
- Reconciles estimates by geography, buyer definition, spending category, and year instead of averaging incompatible numbers.
- Derives SAM through explicit eligibility filters and SOM through acquisition, sales, and delivery capacity.
- Calculates survey completes and invitations using confidence, precision, population size, response assumptions, and subgroup needs.
- Distinguishes descriptive precision from statistical power and probability samples from opt-in panels.
- Evaluates segments against five required criteria, keeping disqualifying failures separate from ranking scores.
What you get
A calculation-backed sizing brief, survey plan, or segment recommendation sized to your request. Assumptions, evidence gaps, sensitivity ranges, and the next verification step stay visible beside the conclusions.
Best for
Founders, product marketers, research analysts, and strategy teams choosing markets or commissioning surveys before campaign planning begins.
SKILL.md preview
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name: market-sizing-survey-design-segment-selection
description: >-
Reconciles top-down and bottom-up TAM/SAM/SOM, calculates survey samples with finite-population and subgroup checks, and qualifies segments against five evidence gates. Use when the user says "size this market", "our TAM numbers don't agree", "how many survey responses do we need", "is 100 responses enough", "which segment should we target", "my survey has too few people in each group", or "check this market-sizing slide".
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# Market Sizing, Survey Design & Segment Selection
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