Financial Analysis, Valuation & Rolling Forecasts
Analyze financial ratios, value a business, explain budget gaps, and build a rolling forecast with reconciled assumptions.
Before & after
Same prompt, same agent — the only difference is the skill.
You can build a financial projection by forecasting revenue, expenses, and cash flow. Start with your current ARR and assume a growth rate based on your market and strategy. Then estimate your operating expenses for salaries, tools, and overhead. Project out 36 months and calculate burn rate and runway. You'll also want to think about when you might break even. A spreadsheet with these basic categories would give you a baseline projection to work with.
FINANCIAL PROJECTION: 3-Year SaaS Model (illustrative; not financial advice) INPUTS -> Current ARR: 240,000 -> Monthly churn: 2.5% -> Customer acquisition: 20 new customers/month (avg $1,200 ACV) -> Sales & marketing: 35% of revenue -> R&D: 25% of revenue -> Operations: 15% of revenue YEAR 1 PROJECTION QUARTER | ARR | NEW CUSTOMERS | CHURN IMPACT | ENDING BALANCE Q1 2026 | 264,000 | 60 | (6,600) | 362,000 Q2 2026 | 324,000 | 60 | (8,100) | 515,000 Q3 2026 | 384,000 | 60 | (9,600) | 728,000 Q4 2026 | 456,000 | 60 | (11,400) | 1,045,000 Year-end ARR: 456,000 | YoY growth: 90% CASH BURN MONTH | REVENUE | OPEX | PAYROLL | BURN | RUNWAY Jan 2026 | 20,000 | 8,000 | 18,000 | (6,000) | 8.7 mo Feb 2026 | 22,000 | 8,500 | 18,000 | (4,500) | 9.2 mo Mar 2026 | 24,000 | 8,500 | 18,000 | (2,500) | 10.1 mo ... Dec 2026 | 38,000 | 13,000 | 18,000 | 7,000 | break-even BREAK-EVEN ANALYSIS -> Projected: Month 11 (November 2026) -> Current cash position: 62,000 -> Runway: 8-10 months (adequate to break-even) -> Sensitivity: if churn increases to 3.5%, break-even extends to month 14 RISK FACTORS -> CAC payback period: 14 months (watch if increasing) -> Payroll as % of revenue: rising from 22% to 32% (monitor headcount growth) -> Market churn risk: 2.5% assumes stable product; tech downturns spike churn RECOMMENDATIONS 1. Reduce CAC payback below 12 months via retention work 2. Delay new hires until month 10 (closer to break-even) 3. Model 3.5% churn scenario as downside case NOTE: These projections are illustrative only and do not constitute financial advice.
About this skill
Revenue is growing, but profit is behind plan and cash is tightening. This skill reconciles the statements, identifies the operating drivers, and builds financial models that explain what changed and what it means for the next decision.
What it does
- Calculates liquidity, profitability, leverage, and efficiency ratios with consistent periods and defensible denominators.
- Builds DCF valuations with explicit cash flow assumptions, discounting, terminal value, and enterprise-to-equity bridges.
- Decomposes budget gaps into volume, price, mix, cost, timing, and one-time effects without double counting.
- Constructs rolling forecasts from recent actuals using operating drivers, working capital, capital spending, and financing assumptions.
- Checks accounting identities, cash roll-forwards, variance bridges, and valuation sensitivities before drawing conclusions.
- Separates reported results, normalized adjustments, management assumptions, and unresolved data gaps.
What you get
A calculation-ready analysis with formulas, assumptions, reconciled results, and the decisions those results support. Depending on the request, the output can be a focused ratio diagnosis, a valuation range, a budget variance bridge, or a rolling forecast specification with spreadsheet formulas.
Best for
Founders, finance managers, FP&A teams, and business owners evaluating company performance, preparing financial plans, or assessing a business valuation.
SKILL.md preview
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name: financial-analysis-valuation-rolling-forecasts
description: >-
Analyze financial statements, build DCF valuations, explain budget variances, and construct rolling forecasts using reconciled statements, driver-based models, and explicit sensitivities. Use when the user says "analyze these financial statements", "build a DCF", "why are we over budget?", "revenue is up but cash keeps falling", "my forecast keeps missing actuals", "update our rolling forecast", or "check this financial model".
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# Financial Analysis, Valuation & Rolling Forecasts
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