Commercial Forecaster
Builds a defensible quarterly bookings and ARR forecast by decomposing pipeline into commit, best-case, and pipe-only tiers instead of one undefended number.
Before & after
Same prompt, same agent — the only difference is the skill.
I'd be happy to help you build a forecast. We should start by looking at your pipeline data, historical win rates, and any assumptions you want to bake in. Do you have your pipeline sorted by stage? What's your average sales cycle? Once we have that, I can project things forward and give you some scenarios. The forecast will probably include some kind of base case and maybe an upside scenario. We should also think about churn, revenue retention, and cohort performance, though those numbers can be tricky to estimate. Would it help to break this down by sales team or customer segment?
QUARTERLY BOOKINGS FORECAST — Q4 2026 FUNNEL DECOMPOSITION • Commit tier (stage 3+): 2.8M ACV × 68% close rate = 1.9M committed • Best-case tier (stage 2-3): 1.2M ACV × 42% close rate = 504K upside • Pipe-only (early stage): 850K ACV × 18% close rate = 153K exploratory → Total scenario range: 1.9M to 2.6M COHORT NRR ANALYSIS • 2025-cohort GRR: 91% (leaky — investigate annual renewal practices) • 2024-cohort NRR: 107% (expansion-driven, strong upsell performance) • 2023-cohort: matured at 98%, no net logo loss PER-STAGE CONFIDENCE SCORING • Stage 3 (negotiation): 78% historical close → high confidence • Stage 2 (demo): 42% historical close → soft floor, treat conservatively • Stage 1 (discovery): 18% historical close → discount by 50% for quarterly planning KEY ASSUMPTIONS (explicit & defensible) • Data window: last 8 quarters, 47 closed deals • Weighting: commit assumes 68% rate (last 4 quarters average); best-case assumes stage 2 conversions at 40% • NRR uses calendar-year cohorts; excludes comps and 100-off promotional credits
About this skill
name: commercial-forecaster description: Use when Use when building a quarterly bookings forecast, ARR projection, pipeline forecast, NRR projection, or commit/best-case/pipe-only board number — especially when the CRO needs to walk the board thro...
Commercial Forecaster
Use when building a quarterly bookings forecast, ARR projection, pipeline forecast, NRR projection, or commit/best-case/pipe-only board number — especially when the CRO needs to walk the board through funnel math + cohort ARR + per-stage conversion assumptions without the theatre of a single undefended number. Decomposes pipeline into commit, best-case, and pipe-only tiers; projects cohort-level NRR/GRR to surface leaky cohorts before they show up in the consolidated number; scores per-stage funnel confidence so soft-floor stages get treated differently from high-confidence ones. Every output explicitly names the conversion rate used, the data window, and the weighting choice. For Head of Commercial, RevOps, VP Sales, and CRO at quarterly forecast or board prep. NOT financial close (see finance/financial-analysis). NOT strategic CRO hiring/territory (see c-level-advisor/cro-advisor). NOT pricing (see sibling pricing-strategist).
What you get
- Public GitHub repo (alirezarezvani/claude-skills)
- the commercial-forecaster skill folder with SKILL.md. Part of a 337-skill / 30-agent / 70-command install.
Customize your output
- Fork the repo and adapt the skill's instructions and references to your workflow.
Example output
Activates automatically when your request matches Commercial Forecaster; chains with the other skills, agents, and commands in the collection.
Best for
Creators, builders, and teams using Claude Code.
SKILL.md preview
---
name: commercial-forecaster
description: Use this skill when building a quarterly bookings forecast, ARR projection, pipeline forecast, or commit/best-case/pipe-only board number for a CRO or RevOps team.
version: 1.0.0
category: Sales / Sales and Commercial
author: AgentVolt
license: proprietary
tags:
- sales
- sales-and-commercial
---
# Commercial Forecaster
Builds a defensible quarterly bookings and ARR forecast by decomposing pipeline into commit, best-case, and pipe-only tiers instead of one undefended number.
## When to use
… (sign up to view the full skill)More sales skills
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